Sunday, April 27, 2008

Notes: Middle East Report 042708

Working. updated.

In yet another twist of Middle East Diplomacy, recent and very public peace overtures by Syria(Demanding public discussion with American mediators present)are on the table. President Assad has stated overtly that he will demand a document of Peace from Israel:
"Syria is demanding that Israel commit in writing to a withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for peace, Syrian President Bashar Assad told Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to the Qatari newspaper Al-Watan."

This figures in with recent public expressions of peace with Israel.

Are the Syrians suddenly eager to get peace talks back on track as a way to derail the establishment of the tribunal?

"The tribunal was established despite all the obstacles it faced," he said. "It might be moving slowly, but we are sure that justice will prevail at the end."

[ On Lebanese-Syrian relations, Jumblatt said that the March 14 Forces have managed to lay down the nature of such relations, even if only theoretically and not practically. ]

Does the recent Democrat primaries have anything to do with this response in combination of the above?

What does Syria know that if real peace does come, extremist elements will see this as more of a Sunni decision? Has Syria been listening to or watching Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan? We even put Saudi Arabia in this discussion for the first time (amongst Arab Countries that have signed peace treaties).

Attacks Syria for discussing peace with the US and Israel.
Is this a ruse? Is there a fracture in the most recent warm relations with Syria? What happens when an American President is elected that wants communication to start / continue? Is this an attempt to stay the hardliner and exact concessions in negotiations? Whatever this means, Syria and Iran will now be in a position to step out of the shadows or further in. When their will be peace to avert war, there is no lasting peace.

Does Iran believe that Syria will bolt to its more natural allies and play both sides ? For now?

Saudi Arabia:
What happened to the Saudi plan for a comprehensive peace between Israel and the Arab states? Have the other states adapted the 1967 borders context as brought up by Saudi Arabia and are still establishing a verbal and cultural national group think? Even if Israel pulled back to the Pre 1967 borders, gave up East Jerusalem, pulled all settlements, do you think the Arab and Muslim populations would suddenly not hate Jews? (see: Hezbollah, HAMAS, Jihadists) Would Israel, as the perceived losers, feel as if their history is written yet again with another "tragedy?" How can Saudi Arabia really help the Jews (Israel)? Are they possibly the next Country to broker a peace deal (Jordan being the last)? Why can they not make a cultural overture?

Back in the seat again (did they ever actually leave?), they are the clear brokers when it comes to HAMAS in Gaza no matter what. Despite Egypt's recent clamp down on the Muslim Brotherhood (during recent elections - what ever happened to those allegations?), the Gaza Sinai border propaganda attempt(Egyptian president says Palestinians allowed in on his orders after gunmen destroy border wall. Article:
The Egyptians are again closing the border in response to the Blockade of Gaza.

If Hezbollah is provided the ability to hold on to their weapons and army, determine War for the Lebanese, and provide Political hijinx at will, even with the handing over of the Shebba Farms, there will be no peace.

(On June 18, 2000, the United Nations affirmed that Israel had withdrawn its forces from Lebanon, in accordance with Resolution 425.[4] ) Hezbollah has been holding the country hostage as a Syrian proxy for years, now it does so with democratic politics.

What do they want? What if BiBi is elected? Has this turned into a Holy War for the State by way of fear and defeat in recent wars? Have the HAMAS rocket attacks withered the resolve of the Israelie people into a defensive posture? Do they know this? Strategies such as targeted assassinations, informers, raids, incursions, and other responses have stemmed the tide, not won the war. What next?

ongoing ...