The drive from Philadelphia, PA USA was 2:40 minutes. We saw very little traffic on I95. We continued to Northern Virginia via the Chain bridge and saw large trucks with snow plows positioned off the roads and no traffic. We have been told that bridges would be blocked at 4AM. We arrived by 3:45 and and met up with our host, Washington Bureau Chief Alan Rosnenblatt who has briefed us.
Washington DC is on lock-down, cold, and very quite.
Expected attendance is 2 million and they will spill into the city all at once starting now via public transportation that will be no doubt very slow.
Ongoing.
Showing posts with label Diplomacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Diplomacy. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Monday, November 24, 2008
Syria's options ...
What is on Syria's mind these days? What does team Obama think of the Sunni President Basher Assad? Will Syria be held accountable for the assassination of Rafik Hariri by the Obama administration or will former US President Jimmy Carter and colleagues (ZBIGNIEW BREZINSKI)"move on" and push for "peace"?
Will Syria actually move beyond their outwardly committed aggressive relationship with Iran? Iran is on the run, no matter what they say, as they had played Tiger with the belief that they could ride out sanctions with fiery rhetoric and shrewd nationalism. Oil prices are falling and the Laws of Supply and demand have trumped (for the moment) Nationalism. They must now lean more on their nationalist proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Will president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad fold or cease public rhetoric? Will the Ayatollahs remove him? Will students and reformers take over as Obama ascends to the US Presidency and shows that US diplomacy, through negotiations, may work?
ref:
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=1688
pending
Will Syria actually move beyond their outwardly committed aggressive relationship with Iran? Iran is on the run, no matter what they say, as they had played Tiger with the belief that they could ride out sanctions with fiery rhetoric and shrewd nationalism. Oil prices are falling and the Laws of Supply and demand have trumped (for the moment) Nationalism. They must now lean more on their nationalist proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Will president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad fold or cease public rhetoric? Will the Ayatollahs remove him? Will students and reformers take over as Obama ascends to the US Presidency and shows that US diplomacy, through negotiations, may work?
ref:
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=1688
pending
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Notes: Middle East Report 042708
Working. updated.
Syria:
In yet another twist of Middle East Diplomacy, recent and very public peace overtures by Syria(Demanding public discussion with American mediators present)are on the table. President Assad has stated overtly that he will demand a document of Peace from Israel:
"Syria is demanding that Israel commit in writing to a withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for peace, Syrian President Bashar Assad told Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to the Qatari newspaper Al-Watan." http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/978301.html
This figures in with recent public expressions of peace with Israel.
Are the Syrians suddenly eager to get peace talks back on track as a way to derail the establishment of the tribunal?
"The tribunal was established despite all the obstacles it faced," he said. "It might be moving slowly, but we are sure that justice will prevail at the end."
[ On Lebanese-Syrian relations, Jumblatt said that the March 14 Forces have managed to lay down the nature of such relations, even if only theoretically and not practically. ]
Does the recent Democrat primaries have anything to do with this response in combination of the above?
What does Syria know that if real peace does come, extremist elements will see this as more of a Sunni decision? Has Syria been listening to or watching Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan? We even put Saudi Arabia in this discussion for the first time (amongst Arab Countries that have signed peace treaties).
Iran:
Attacks Syria for discussing peace with the US and Israel. http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Iran/226298
Is this a ruse? Is there a fracture in the most recent warm relations with Syria? What happens when an American President is elected that wants communication to start / continue? Is this an attempt to stay the hardliner and exact concessions in negotiations? Whatever this means, Syria and Iran will now be in a position to step out of the shadows or further in. When their will be peace to avert war, there is no lasting peace.
Does Iran believe that Syria will bolt to its more natural allies and play both sides ? For now?
Saudi Arabia:
What happened to the Saudi plan for a comprehensive peace between Israel and the Arab states? Have the other states adapted the 1967 borders context as brought up by Saudi Arabia and are still establishing a verbal and cultural national group think? Even if Israel pulled back to the Pre 1967 borders, gave up East Jerusalem, pulled all settlements, do you think the Arab and Muslim populations would suddenly not hate Jews? (see: Hezbollah, HAMAS, Jihadists) Would Israel, as the perceived losers, feel as if their history is written yet again with another "tragedy?" How can Saudi Arabia really help the Jews (Israel)? Are they possibly the next Country to broker a peace deal (Jordan being the last)? Why can they not make a cultural overture?
Egypt:
Back in the seat again (did they ever actually leave?), they are the clear brokers when it comes to HAMAS in Gaza no matter what. Despite Egypt's recent clamp down on the Muslim Brotherhood (during recent elections - what ever happened to those allegations?), the Gaza Sinai border propaganda attempt(Egyptian president says Palestinians allowed in on his orders after gunmen destroy border wall. Article: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull&cid=1200572523339)
The Egyptians are again closing the border in response to the Blockade of Gaza.
Lebanon:
If Hezbollah is provided the ability to hold on to their weapons and army, determine War for the Lebanese, and provide Political hijinx at will, even with the handing over of the Shebba Farms, there will be no peace.
(On June 18, 2000, the United Nations affirmed that Israel had withdrawn its forces from Lebanon, in accordance with Resolution 425.[4] ) Hezbollah has been holding the country hostage as a Syrian proxy for years, now it does so with democratic politics.
Israel:
What do they want? What if BiBi is elected? Has this turned into a Holy War for the State by way of fear and defeat in recent wars? Have the HAMAS rocket attacks withered the resolve of the Israelie people into a defensive posture? Do they know this? Strategies such as targeted assassinations, informers, raids, incursions, and other responses have stemmed the tide, not won the war. What next?
ongoing ...
.
Syria:
In yet another twist of Middle East Diplomacy, recent and very public peace overtures by Syria(Demanding public discussion with American mediators present)are on the table. President Assad has stated overtly that he will demand a document of Peace from Israel:
"Syria is demanding that Israel commit in writing to a withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for peace, Syrian President Bashar Assad told Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to the Qatari newspaper Al-Watan." http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/978301.html
This figures in with recent public expressions of peace with Israel.
Are the Syrians suddenly eager to get peace talks back on track as a way to derail the establishment of the tribunal?
"The tribunal was established despite all the obstacles it faced," he said. "It might be moving slowly, but we are sure that justice will prevail at the end."
[ On Lebanese-Syrian relations, Jumblatt said that the March 14 Forces have managed to lay down the nature of such relations, even if only theoretically and not practically. ]
Does the recent Democrat primaries have anything to do with this response in combination of the above?
What does Syria know that if real peace does come, extremist elements will see this as more of a Sunni decision? Has Syria been listening to or watching Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan? We even put Saudi Arabia in this discussion for the first time (amongst Arab Countries that have signed peace treaties).
Iran:
Attacks Syria for discussing peace with the US and Israel. http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Iran/226298
Is this a ruse? Is there a fracture in the most recent warm relations with Syria? What happens when an American President is elected that wants communication to start / continue? Is this an attempt to stay the hardliner and exact concessions in negotiations? Whatever this means, Syria and Iran will now be in a position to step out of the shadows or further in. When their will be peace to avert war, there is no lasting peace.
Does Iran believe that Syria will bolt to its more natural allies and play both sides ? For now?
Saudi Arabia:
What happened to the Saudi plan for a comprehensive peace between Israel and the Arab states? Have the other states adapted the 1967 borders context as brought up by Saudi Arabia and are still establishing a verbal and cultural national group think? Even if Israel pulled back to the Pre 1967 borders, gave up East Jerusalem, pulled all settlements, do you think the Arab and Muslim populations would suddenly not hate Jews? (see: Hezbollah, HAMAS, Jihadists) Would Israel, as the perceived losers, feel as if their history is written yet again with another "tragedy?" How can Saudi Arabia really help the Jews (Israel)? Are they possibly the next Country to broker a peace deal (Jordan being the last)? Why can they not make a cultural overture?
Egypt:
Back in the seat again (did they ever actually leave?), they are the clear brokers when it comes to HAMAS in Gaza no matter what. Despite Egypt's recent clamp down on the Muslim Brotherhood (during recent elections - what ever happened to those allegations?), the Gaza Sinai border propaganda attempt(Egyptian president says Palestinians allowed in on his orders after gunmen destroy border wall. Article: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull&cid=1200572523339)
The Egyptians are again closing the border in response to the Blockade of Gaza.
Lebanon:
If Hezbollah is provided the ability to hold on to their weapons and army, determine War for the Lebanese, and provide Political hijinx at will, even with the handing over of the Shebba Farms, there will be no peace.
(On June 18, 2000, the United Nations affirmed that Israel had withdrawn its forces from Lebanon, in accordance with Resolution 425.[4] ) Hezbollah has been holding the country hostage as a Syrian proxy for years, now it does so with democratic politics.
Israel:
What do they want? What if BiBi is elected? Has this turned into a Holy War for the State by way of fear and defeat in recent wars? Have the HAMAS rocket attacks withered the resolve of the Israelie people into a defensive posture? Do they know this? Strategies such as targeted assassinations, informers, raids, incursions, and other responses have stemmed the tide, not won the war. What next?
ongoing ...
.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
On the Road to Nowhere ... Is No Where Home?
We keep reading the repeated references to Rice and Gate's failed Middle East diplomacy (touting the Saudi's comments that they "might" attend a regional conference) in the World Press and reports from diplomatic circles that everybody (friends, foes, and Jihadists alike) are now waiting out the Bush administration. They should... It makes good diplomatic sense.
Hearing the rhetoric from the Democratic campaign trails makes it clear. The next US administration appears willing to talk to Iran, Hamas, Sunni Extremists, etc. and negotiate from a more "Peace oriented" POV. Nobody wants to be in Iraq, nobody wants to fight anymore. The Jihadists know this and are excited by the prospects.
Will the american citizen be safer? No way. We lost the war. Let the victor's write the history.
Hearing the rhetoric from the Democratic campaign trails makes it clear. The next US administration appears willing to talk to Iran, Hamas, Sunni Extremists, etc. and negotiate from a more "Peace oriented" POV. Nobody wants to be in Iraq, nobody wants to fight anymore. The Jihadists know this and are excited by the prospects.
Will the american citizen be safer? No way. We lost the war. Let the victor's write the history.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)